25 AUG 2021 - WALK IT IN
Walking it Back:
Do you believe in miracles?! YES! Sure, Tony Finau won the Puerto Rico Open five years ago, but everyone has been dogging him and waiting for a “real” win and what a time for him to get one! Finau played great all weekend at The Northern Trust and is now secure on the US Ryder Cup team as a result. Let’s walk back our picks from last week before turning our attention to the BMW Championship.
There’s no easy way to say this and we may have to go back and check the tape, but last week might have been the worst week of gambling this group has ever had so that’s exciting! The NLU crew went a combined 0-15 making golf picks while Walk It In went a combined 0-13. A truly historic week at Liberty National and everyone should have to be in the pouch of misery for their efforts.
The FedEx top 70 now make the short trip to Maryland for the BMW Championship and I *think* it’s going to go better than last week! Cheers!
If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Jeff is away and goes first at the BMW!
Jeff: A new course to many of these players, but one thing travels: distance off the tee. At 7,500+ yards this feels like a place where a bomber can go get it. Yeah, they got to putt and flush the irons so I’ll take a look across the full gamut of approach and putting stats, but I want to round out my card with guys who can go out and get it.
Mark: It makes it a little tougher to handicap without any course history, but by all accounts, Caves Valley looks like a pretty standard course without too much trouble. Greens will be fast and scores will be low so the usual suspects will be at play for me - SG: T2G, SG: Putting and SG: Approach.
Inside the Leather
Scottie Scheffler Top 10 (+230) - 1 unit
Arguably the best on Tour with the driver when measured by a combination of distance and accuracy off the tee. Rahm is right there with him, but when it comes to drivable Par 4s and a full slate of Par 5s I can’t look away from a guy who has had a really good year. I think the opportunity in front of him with the Ryder Cup is added motivation. Could be a big week for Scheffler.
Patrick Cantlay Top 10 (+230) - 1 unit
Cantlay is, as Mark and the radio guest mentioned, just kind of there. His results have been really impressive this season with a slew of Top 20s and two wins. Kind of feels like he isn’t getting the pub he deserves to make the Ryder Cup team. Regardless of that factor, I like that he’s always ultra consistent and performs very well on these long, bentgrass courses (e.g. Muirfield).
Keegan Bradley Top 20 (+200) - 1 unit
Keegan always makes my card when I want to close my eyes and only go off the sound of a pure ball striking. I want to see zero putts from this man, but if he can find some level of consistency this week his ball striking should travel. Keegan is another guy like Scheffler that has the weapon in the driver. He’ll need to use it this week.
Justin Thomas Top 10 (+150) - 1 unit
JT hadn’t had a top 10 since his win at The PLAYERS, but played really well last week en route to a 4th place finish. Perhaps most importantly, his putter looked good and gives me some confidence that he may be “back”.
Webb Simpson Top 20 (-120) - 1 unit
He didn’t have the best week at Liberty National, but three straight top 20’s before that and his excellent all-around game should do well here at the BMW. Furthermore, this is his last chance to impress Steve Stricker and the Ryder Cup team with only one or two spots still up for grabs.
Erik van Rooyen Top 20 (+250) - 1 unit
Rolling with the joggers this week! EVR has been in great form recently, winning the Barracuda three weeks ago and finishing 7th last week. He’s 14th in the field in putting over his last 16 rounds and I’m hoping he can keep up his strong play.
Joaquin Niemann Top 10 (+400) - .5 unit
Niemann is a guy who has had his ups and downs this year. However, it is these bentgrass courses that he shows a real propensity for showing up. He’s got a distance weapon with the driver but his accuracy is like most bombers: absent. I’ll put a half unit for the volatility that we get with Niemann.
Patrick Cantlay Win (+2500) - .5 unit
Scottie Scheffler Win (+3000) - .5 unit
Well no surprise that I’m looking at these two for win bets. What else is there to say at this point. Walk em in boys!
Scottie Scheffler Win (+3000) - .5 unit
Scottie Scheffler Top 10 After R1 - 1 unit
Jeff is all over this guy too and for good reason. Five top 20’s and three top 10’s in his last seven starts, 24th in SG: T2G and 4th in birdie average. He’s also 4th on TOUR in round one scoring average so I’m hoping to get off to a hot start with that Thursday prop.
Justin Thomas Win (+2000) - .5 unit
I think JT is going to have a really good week in Maryland and am glad he looks to have found something with his putter. He’s 4th on TOUR in SG: T2G and 3rd in SG: Approach. If the putting is there, we have ourselves a really good number on the 5th best player in the world.