09 JUNE 2021 - WALK IT IN
Walking it Back:
This past week in golf was a big one, highlighted by the US Women’s Open, a leader withdrawing from the Memorial and friend of the program Marcus Armitage earning his first European Tour win. Our bets on all these tournaments weren’t quite as memorable so let’s walk those back and then turn our attention to the Palmetto Championship.
We have a major scoring scandal permeating through the locker room as the former Draft King Tron has been accused of incorrectly grading his bets and a full investigation is underway. As such, TC was not able to make any picks for this past week and has been docked 200 nuggies. Stay tuned for more on this despicable turn of events.
Soly is the current Draft King, but he didn’t look like it this week as he went 0-5 between the Memorial and Women’s US Open. He had a Tringale top 20, Fitzpatrick top 10 on the PGA TOUR and missed bets on Jutanugarn, Nelly Korda and Sophia Popov on the LPGA.
When making the picks for this week, Big Randy said ‘we probably won’t hit any of these, but it’ll be fun following along’. He won that prediction at least because every one of his bets was a loser and he remains at the bottom of the standings.
Our guy Neil was dead on when talking about Patrick Cantlay at Memorial, but got gunshy and only went with a top 10 bet and not a winner! That was his only hit of the week as his losses were on Conners to finish top 10 and Reed, Hovland and Schauffele to win.
DJ is scuffling right now and took another 0-5 week unfortunately. Danielle Kang and Nelly Korda did not win the Women’s US Open, Conners and Matsuyama did not finish top 10 at Muirfield Village and Brendon Todd did not finish in the top 20.
What could have been for the Walk It In boys, huh?! Mark and Jeff both had win bets on Collin Morikawa and came up just short in the playoff. Jeff still had a good week thanks to Max Homa’s top 20 and Rickie Fowler’s top 20. Mark really needed that Morikawa win because the only bet he hit was the tournament ending in a playoff.
Now the TOUR heads to Congaree Golf Club for the first time as a substitution for the RBC Canadian Open. The field stinks, but our picks won’t! Right?! RIGHT?!
The Approach
If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Mark is away and goes first at Congaree!
Mark: Congaree Golf Club looks awesome, but we don’t know too much about it considering it’s a replacement location for the RBC Canadian Open. Stephen Hennessey of Golf Digest played this course and said it doesn’t play as long as the 7,650 yard listing and I don’t put too much stock into driving distance anyway so that’s not too big a factor for me. I WILL be looking at success around the greens and on the greens because of how fast and firm the course is said to be. As always, recent form is a big one for me too.
Jeff: I’m excited that Congaree is getting some love this week given the mission of this course and its members. The field doesn’t match last week’s or next week’s, but the course should provide a fun challenge. With the distance and par 71 setup I’m going for bombers and long iron players with their GIR% 200+ yards out. Recent form is always of importance to me so I’ll mix those three numbers this week.
Inside the Leather
Mark’s Picks:
Ian Poulter Top 20 (+120) - 2 units
Ian Poulter Top 10 (+275) - 1 unit
I am extremely high on Poulter this week and will stack some position finishes in hopes of doubling up. He is 7th on TOUR this season in SG: Putting and 21st in SG: Around the Green. More recently, he ranks 3rd in this field in putting and 4th around the green in his last 16 rounds. Poulter was T3 two weeks ago and T30 at the PGA on a comparable course.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello Top 20 (+250) - 2 units
RCB has gone T21, T32 and T37 in his last three starts, which is decent, and we’re hoping for a little more this week in a watered down field. He’s pretty accurate off the tee and in his last 16 rounds he ranks 39th in the field in SG: T2G and 10th in SG: ATG.
Ben Martin Top 20 (+250) - 1 unit
The South Carolina native and former Clemson golfer (boooo) is playing well lately, having made six of his last seven cuts and finishing T11 and T26 his last two times out. He’s 37th on TOUR in putting and has consistent numbers across the board over his last 16 rounds that add up to 22nd in the field in SG: Total.
Jeff’s Picks:
Garrick Higgo Top 20 (+188) - 2 units
I almost took a win bet on Higgo this week, and there were a few South Africans playing well at Kiawah (also in SC) and Higgo was one of them. He finished in the back of the pack, but he’s been playing solid as of late. He’s a bit off the radar so I was surprised to see his top 20 odds shorter than 2-1, but I’m still thinking there is value here.
Pat Perez Top 20 (+250) - 1 unit
In this field Perez should be in the top class. Compared to his competitors this week he ranks 12th in SG: T2G in the last 12 rounds and 19th in the past 36 rounds. He’s playing good golf compared to this group, and it’s showing up in all categories. He’s not limited to one facet at this point. I think that’s enough to keep him in the mix this week.
Vincent Whaley Top 20 (+250) - 2 units
It’s been a really quiet run for Whaley but he’s made his past 10 cuts and 7 of those were top 30. He hasn’t threatened to win (yet) but he’s been in the mix. All his SG numbers are improved when you compare his 36 round splits with his 12 round splits. I like these odds for a top 20 so I’ll get a little aggressive here with two units.
Double Breaker
Mark’s Picks:
Brandt Snedeker Top 5 American (+650) - 1 unit
Sneds is the 9th listed favorite among Americans so I feel like I’m getting a little bit of value here with this line. In addition, he’s made five straight cuts and three of those are top 20’s. In his last 16 rounds, Snedeker ranks 7th in the field around the green and 8th in putting. He certainly has a chance to make some noise this week.
Ian Poulter to win (+2800) - .5 unit
Ben Martin to win (+8500) - .25 unit
I made a comparison on the podcast between Poulter and guys like Xander, Finau and Fleetwood because Poulter also doesn’t seem to win enough tournaments when in contention, but he at least has a fire in his belly and the demeanor/fire in his belly to get it done as shown in Ryder Cups and other big matches over his career. I’m already on top 10 and top 20 plays for him so I might as well go for the trifecta! Ben Martin is a longshot of course, but one I’m happy to take a shot on as he’s from South Carolina and is playing some good golf right now.
Jeff’s Picks:
Patton Kizzire to win (+4500) - .5 units
Keith Mitchell to win (+5000) - .5 units
Vince Whaley to win (+10000) - .25 units
Three pack this week of winners. Kizzire was a popular flier last week at Memorial and he crashed and burned. I think he gets back to his nice run of form this week. He’s one of the Sea Island, GA guys who isn’t far from home in SC, and should play well with his overall game and comfort hitting it long. Keith Mitchell is even longer than Kizzire and he’s been in the mix this year (most recently at Quail Hollow). Then there is Whaley who I already profiled. I heard he opened at +12000 I got in at +10000 and now he’s down to +8000. Join the fun!