16 JUNE 2021 - WALK IT IN
Walking it Back:
What a week for Walk It In and the NLU5. It was a somber tone though for TC after his parlay shenanigans a few weeks ago at the PGA Championship. His public apology hit the airwaves just before Palmetto, and we’ll see what is in store for TC through the rest of the summer.
Let’s start with our rightful Draft King, Soly, who spent the majority of his weekly nuggets on the LPGA Mediheal Championship. He didn’t have the right combo with his win bets (Shanshan Feng) and top 5 (Lydia Ko and Inbee Park) but his top 10 bet on Angel Yin did just sneak in with a T9. It was the only win of the week for Soly as Ian Poulter failed to contend at Congaree.
Next on the sheet is the new mayor of the pouch of misery, Randy. He went for a home run with Bianca Pagdanganan on a 40-1 ticket at the LPGA to win and she finished 64 places away from the top spot. We’ve now moved from just golf plays to golf + F1 to now golf + F1 + Euro 2021 with Randy’s Croatia and England tie bet. Still, no dice for the big guy. And probably his worst loss of the weekend was So Yeon Ryu beating out Danielle Kang in a group play bet by a single stroke to spoil the +450 bet on Danielle. You hate to see it. I hate to have to keep typing this but Luke List didn’t get the win and neither did his parlay after Brooke Henderson WD’d at Mediheal. Capital T Tough week for Randy.
DJ is continuing to move in the direction of Neil and Big Randy when it comes to golf bets, but alas, he found a winner this past week on Novak Djokovic in a the French Open coming from behind by two...oh yeah this is a golf + F1 + Euro + French Open betting card now....sets to win! The +500 winner gives DJ a little momentum despite missing on Lydia Ko first round leader and win bets, along with a Koepka win bet and Shanshanfeng top 5.
Neil went winners only this past week and came up with L’s in hand. Brooks, DJ, Hatton, Fitzpatrick, Sungjae all made the card and all fell short. DJ and Hatton mixed it up a bit, but that’s what makes outright bets so hard at the top of the board when a 50-1 ticket hits on Higgo.
And finally, we finish up with TC. His somber tone is gone and he’s back in action like a fugitive on the run. He took his 200 nuggie hit and then fired off five win bets to light those nuggies on fire too! Glover, Kisner, English, Fleetwood and Sungjae all fell to the mighty Higgo and resulted in a 300 nuggie hit. Over the last two weeks. The gap is widening between Soly and the field…
As for the Walk It In boys Jeff continues this nice run of form with five of his last six weeks being in the green. Although, just like Brooks Koepka, Mark is a big game hunter and typically shows up in major weeks. He picked up over 12 units at the PGA just a few weeks ago so he’s looking for more major mojo this week at the US Open.
The Approach
If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Mark is away and goes first at Torrey!
Mark: We talk about it on the podcast all the time, but the cream always rises to the top in majors and the US Open is probably examples 1, 2 and 3 of that given the difficulty of the setup each year. Golfers are familiar with Torrey Pines and that helps, but the rough will be longer, the greens will be dialed up and pressure will be on. I’m targeting strength off the tee most importantly and after that I will look at ball strikers and those who putt well on the Poa Annua.
Jeff: Major week! I always have a tough time deciding between Augusta and the US Open as my favorite major. Augusta for its beauty. US Open for its carnage. This week will be a tough test at a long, rough infested Torrey Pines South Course. It’s going to look b.e.a.utiful this week though with the weather and conditions. For my approach I’m keeping it simple. I want guys who are average or above average in distance, play US Opens well in the past, and have a T2G game inside the top 50 in this field. This kind of test will put pressure on all facets of your game this week.
Inside the Leather
Mark’s Picks:
Jon Rahm Top 20 After Round 1 (+150) - 2 units
People still have questions about Rahm surrounding his COVID-related WD two weeks ago, but I think the betting favorite will come out firing on Thursday and leave no doubt who the best player in the world is *right now*. Rahm is 13th on TOUR in 1st round scoring.
Collin Morikawa Top 20 (+225) - 2 units
The owner of five straight top 20’s (excluding the Zurich Classic, which is a team event), Morikawa leads the entire TOUR in SG: T2G, SG: Approach and GIR% - is that good?!
Tyrrell Hatton Top 20 (+250) - 1 unit
He admitted to being rusty coming into the Palmetto Championship last week and managed a T2 so I think the rust is off. Hatton doesn’t have the US Open success as some others on my card, but he’s playing great golf and is extremely accurate, ranking 13th in SG: T2G and 4th in SG: Approach.
Jason Kokrak Top 20 (+275) - 1 unit
Hasn’t played since he won the Charles Schwab a few weeks ago so he’s got to be recovered from that celebration, right? T29 at Torrey Pines earlier this year and T17 at the last US Open. Kokrak ranks 22nd in SG: Off The Tee and 5th in SG: Putting.
Carlos Ortiz Top 30 (+188) - 1 unit
Ortiz finished inside the top 30 (T29) at the Farmers earlier this year and is coming off a T16 at the Memorial. In his last 16 rounds, he ranks 5th in approach and 19th in SG: T2G. He also gains over 0.6 strokes per round on Poa Annua greens over other surfaces.
Jhonattan Vegas Top 30 (+225) - 1 unit
Vegas had a sneaky T2 finish last week at Congaree and finished T9 two starts before that at the Byron Nelson. He is really good off the tee, ranking 4th on TOUR in that area so if he can get in good positions with his drive, he’ll hopefully have opportunities to score.
Jeff’s Picks:
Sam Burns Top 20 (+275) - 2 units
Sam Burns is playing some spectacular golf this year. He has a solid short game (relies heavily on a very good putter) and has been top notch with irons. His OTT game is strong and ranks 30th in distance this year. He doesn’t have a ton of US Open experience, but is 1 for 2 on made cuts. I’ll take the longer odds with Burns and hope he’s right around that 20 mark on Sunday.
Webb Simpson Top 20 (+188) - 2 units
Ok, so he’s the guy on the list without the distance. He’s also the guy on the list with one of the more impressive US Open records. He’s on a run of 9 of 10 cuts made at the US Open with three straight T16 or better. He won in 2012, and has just been really consistent in this stage in his career. I’m playing his floor this week despite the distance off the tee. His short game is great and his irons have been good.
Double Breaker
Mark’s Picks:
Jon Rahm to Win (+1050) - 1 unit
Viktor Hovland to Win (+2500) - .5 unit
Abraham Ancer to Win (+4500) - .25 unit
I usually don’t love playing odds this short, but feel like all the chips are in place for Rahm to win his first major. He is playing better than anyone in the world, has won at Torrey Pines before and has a major itch to scratch (get it?) having had to WD with the lead two weeks ago and not owning a major championship yet. Hovland is another superstar without a major, but with the game to get one sooner rather than later. He was T2 at the Farmers in January, T13 in his last US Open start and is a beast off the tee. Abraham Ancer has five straight top 20’s and 10 straight top 30’s on the PGA Tour! He’s 3rd in driving accuracy and 12th in GIR% so if he can make a couple of putts I expect him to contend.
MATCHUP PARLAY: Koepka over DeChambeau, Leishman over Fleetwood, Morikawa over Reed, Casey over Fitzpatrick (+1250) - .5 unit
I ask you, what could go wrong?! Seriously, I needed some action on Brooksie over Bryson and I think Leishman, Morikawa and Casey will all contend this weekend. I love this parlay.
Jeff’s Picks:
Chan Kim Top 20 (+1000) - .5 unit
Hand up if you’ve heard of Chan Kim! I’ll be honest until this week I hadn’t, but at 10-1 I’m all for some double breaker fun and making money. Kim plays a lot on the Japan Tour. He’s been on a great run there since the fall with four T6 or better showings (including a win), and he backed that up at the PGA with a T23 at Kiawah. His short game is strong and he brings over 307 yards on average with his driving.
Jason Kokrak Top 10 (+400) - 1 unit
Kokrak is playing the best golf of his career. His driver is 22nd in distance on Tour and his putting is fantastic. His only T2G shortcoming is chipping but it’s just about average in this field. He was T17 last year, and he’s playing better golf now than he was then.
Group F Winner Rose (+350) - 1 unit (over Fitzpatrick/Mickelson/Woodland/Cam Smith)
I wanted to figure out where to get Rose exposure. He feels like a wild card, but has had a good year and has some great performances at the US Open. I’m honestly not sold on the other guys in this group. I love Cam Smith usually but his form has been off lately. Fitzpatrick could surprise with his short game, but I don’t see Phil replicating what he did at Kiawah.
Xander Schauffele Win (+1400) - 1 unit
Rory McIlory Win (+2000) - .5 unit
Viktor Hovland Win (+2200) - .5 unit
Max Homa Win (+9000) - .25 unit
Sam Burns Win (+10000) - .25 unit
Going with one short of a six pack this week. Xander has so much US Open success and is a Cali kid (did you hear for the 100th time that he grew up close to Torrey??). He’s got four straight T6 or better at the US Open. I like Rory this week for the driver. It’s a huge weapon and his approach numbers are better of late. He’s also a guy with a good history coming off back to back top 10s in US Opens. Then you got Viktor who says he sucks at chipping but he’s been doing better of late around the greens. His driver is a weapon and he’s played well at US Opens in the past too.
Homa and Burns are plays on their ceiling. Both guys have won this year and Homa is a west coast kid as well. Homa’s short game isn’t great, but at 90-1 if he has a good week with the wedges and the putter, the rest of the game is there.