Tournament Picks – Travelers Championship
For the third consecutive week, the NLU crew is celebrating the return of golf by making gambling picks via the DraftKings Sportsbook app. To compliment the release of each video (if you missed this week's, here it is), the guys have graciously invited me to provide an unbiased written breakdown of the crew's predictions. I will also tabulate each week's results and accumulate totals to keep everything as fair as Al Czervik would advise.
Here are this week's picks, one by one. My take can be found beneath each of the NLU crew's picks in the section labeled "THE READ", where scummy, time-consuming greens books are rendered useless.
SOLY:
- Bryson DeChambeau to Win (14:1) - Risking 20 points to win 280.
- Sergio Garcia to Win (55:1) – Risking 10 points to win 550.
- Joel Dahmen to Win (100:1) – Risking 10 points to win 1000.
- Collin Morikawa to finish Top 20 (+163) – Risking 30 points to win 49.
- Sergio Garcia to finish Top 20 (2:1) – Risking 30 points to win 60.
- LAST WEEK'S TOTAL: -27 Points. YEAR TO DATE TOTAL: -127 Points.
"THE READ": UNLEASH THE KRAKEN! Although TPC River Highlands isn't necessarily a bomber's paradise, Soly expects Bryson to untame his beast this week. "B-rye" had another mediocre putting week around a course that neutralized his mass of ass...and still finished T8. His results should improve on a course slightly more suited to his strengths.
Following an usually positive Sunday on the greens for Ser-hee-o, the crew discussed whether they believed he would ever win on Tour again during Monday's recap pod. Soly argued he would "sooner or later" and is putting his proverbial nuggets where his mouth is in literally the earliest possible sense of that phrase. Let's just hope the prickly Spaniard wasn't unintentionally referring to himself when he mentioned there were players more deserving of contracting COVID-19. Taking a flier on Dahmen, a recent inductee to the 58 club, on a course that has yielded the only 58 in Tour history (shoutout Jax native & WWOG contestant Jim Furyk) seems worth the risk.
After riding with honest Abe all throughout last week, he is notably absent from Soly's lineup this week. My view? Soly had no choice as a founding member of the No Laying Up brand. An endorsement this week would have implied tolerance of Abe's "layup" putt that would have forced a playoff last week.
TRON:
- Ryan Ruffels to Win the Utah Championship (KFT) (90:1) - Risking 10 points to win 900.
- Zac Blair to Finish Top 20 (12:1) – Risking 80 points to win 960.
- Harry Higgs to Win (250:1) – Risking 10 points to win 2500.
- WEEKLY TOTAL: +49 Points. YEAR TO DATE TOTAL: +19 Points.
"THE READ": Grumpy Tron rolled out of bed and decided to protest the 5-play maximum by making decidedly less than 5 plays. To be fair, his crankiness is likely attributible to spending the previous night speaking with Hitter Blanco about the legality of the arm-lock putting method until the wee hours of the morning. This also would explain the need for his controversial Starbucks cup seen in the preview video.
In an attempt to cheer himself up, TC is following the heart with his picks this week. If you've ever gambled, you know this always works out. The potential for over 4,300 points is there...and frankly I think we'd all be stumped if the TC way produces anything less.
NEIL:
- Patrick Cantlay to Win (28:1) - Risking 20 points to win 560.
- Paul Casey to finish Top 5 (9:1) – Risking 20 points to win 180.
- Patrick Reed to Win (35:1) – Risking 20 points to win 700.
- Chez Reavie to finish Top 10 (12:1) – Risking 40 points to win 480.
- **note that Neil originally picked Cam Champ to Top 10 before his W/D**
- LAST WEEK'S TOTAL: -100 Points. YEAR TO DATE TOTAL: -200 Points.
"THE READ": A truly puzzling RBC Heritage week for Icarito was perhaps summed up perfectly by his boy Chezzie finishing mini DFL (last of those who survived the cut). If you thought two straight weeks with almost no sign of elite play would deter Icarito from backing Chez again this week, you don't know Icarito. Neil may need an aid to quit Chez as badly as Ray Liotta needed Chantix.
On paper, Neil’s picks last week didn’t look great. In reality, they were worse. If the “ethos” of the new gambling segment is to provide a rooting interest for each Sunday, consider Neil’s performance last week a big right miss. But I believe in this week's strategy (which only Neil could surmise) of picking "solid ball-strikers who learned to putt in the last three months."
People are talking. The rumor is that Neil’s anti-Bryson pick last week and obvious avoidance this week may be deeply rooted in jealousy. As Big Randy so righteously pointed out during this past week’s Wild World of Golf, Neil has been on a fitness journey of his own recently (in tandem of course with Shaun T). Unlike Bryson, Icarito’s results have yet to translate into improved play or gambling prowess. The prevailing belief is that the process is bound to produce...but, truthfully, who could say?
DENNIS:
- Max Homa to finish Top 10 (12:1) - Risking 30 points to win 360.
- Bubba Watson to finish Top 10 (3:1) – Risking 20 points to win 60.
- Joel Dahmen to Win (100:1) – Risking 10 points to win 1000.
- Viktor Hovland to finish Top 20 (5:2) – Risking 20 points to win 50.
- Bryson DeChambeau to lead after round 1 (20:1) - Risking 20 points to win 400.
- LAST WEEK'S TOTAL: +480 Points. YEAR TO DATE TOTAL: +380 Points.
"THE READ": Last week was redemptive in more ways than one, as DJ’s pointed strategy to back Rahm, Simpson and Smith (all MC’d at Colonial) handsomely rewarded him with 560 nuggets. CBS was unfortuntely unable to get a post-round word with DJ, but many of his delegates commented on his humility, repeating “that’s Dennis” and “he’d never want to make the story about him."
As he admitted, DJ spent his allotment this week the way a child might spend $20 when the ice cream truck rolls into the neighborhood. What good is house money if it can't be spent? Despite acknowledging that the "Hovland can't chip" theory had some serious legs at Harbour Town last week, Dennis is nonetheless electing to test the Norwegian waters this week. I'd say Bryson's odds of leading after round 1 are about as good as Dennis slipping up and saying, "Hello, friends" to open a Wild World of Golf....which is to say, it is very possible.
BIG RANDY:
Randy declined to make picks this week and instead graciously offered his time to assist Colonial CC's Superintendent in mending the 1st teebox. Immediately following, he has scheduled a flight to Hilton Head to tend to the bunker behind the 18th green at Harbour Town that was disgustingly left unkempt by Carlos Ortiz's caddy on Sunday. Hats off, Big Man.
- LAST WEEK'S TOTAL: - Points. YEAR TO DATE TOTAL: - Points.
MY PICKS (@total_misread on instagram and twitter):
- Abraham Ancer to finish Top 10 (+280) - Risking 20 points to win 56.
- Joaquin Niemann to win "Group D" (+275) - Risking 20 points to win 55.
- (Group D includes Matt Fitzpatrick, Sergio Garcia, Tony Finau & Marc Leishman)
- Bryson DeChambeau to Win (14:1) - Risking 20 points to win 280.
- Matchup parlay: 1. Paul Casey over Gary Woodland 2. Patrick Cantlay over Justin Rose (+230) - Risking 30 points to win 69.
- Brian Harman to win (80:1) Risking 10 points to win 800.
- LAST WEEK'S TOTAL: -10 Points. YEAR TO DATE TOTAL: -72 Points.
"THE READ": Ball-striking travels. At least I'm hopeful that will be the case for Abe and Jaco, whom both flushed it last week. As I mentioned earlier, Bryson was able to manage a top 10 in an off-week at Harbour Town. Expect the full arsenal to be on display (barring a return to poor TV coverage) in Cromwell this week. Casey and Cantlay both have solid resumes at TPC River Highlands and come in as fresh as can be this week. I think they best Woodland and Rosie who are now competing in their third straight week. Harman may have the ugliest putter in golf, but I'll take a chance on Tron's fellow southpaw at those inflated odds.
Standings After Week 2
1.DJ Pie +380 points
2.TC +19 points
3. Scott Schaeffer (@total_misread) -72 points
4. Soly -127 points
5. Neil -200 nugs
That'll do it. If you're interested in a recap of each week's results, up-to-date standings of the NLU crew and other golf/gambling related content, I can be found on Instagram and Twitter @total_misread. Like the NLU guys, I'm not quite a sharp…just a golf addict enjoying that these picks create a concrete rooting interest for us each week.
As has been the case the last couple weeks, look for the Rocket Mortgage Classic gambling preview video to be released next Tuesday. I feel humbled that the guys are allowing me to collaborate and be a small part of their content with these written previews.
Cheers,
-Scott Schaeffer
(@total_misread)